Highlights
- We scored Isaac Asimov (and others) on their predictive power, for Holden Karnofsky.
- We led a study of AI talent and immigration for Mercatus and Schmidt Futures and advised the UK Cabinet Office. Whitepaper forthcoming.
- We answered the question “Who’s better at prediction, top forecasters or academics?”, for OpenPhil.
- We answered the question “What makes new intellectual fields and movements succeed?”, forthcoming for [client].
- Forthcoming paper on all the problems AI could cause, written for [client].
- Our sister org Samotsvety answered some important forecasting questions:
Other projects
- We collated every public forecast about AI and noted weaknesses and gaps, for [client].
- Scouted clinical trial locations, for [client].
- We investigated modern scoring rules for forecasting, coming out against surrogate scoring, for [client].
- Gavin set up an emergency research team. 80% ready, handover soon.
- Misha served as a grantmaker for [client], moving about $1 million, mostly to individual researchers.
- David started critiquing classic EA background papers, alongside his work on forecasting and history.
- Ran an iteration of ESPR (with lots of help!).
- Judged the EA Criticisms Contest.
- Yet more AI forecasting, for [client]
- We played a minor role in launching a pain science project investigating the FAAH enzyme.
- Forthcoming piece on the meaning of modern forecasting 10 years in. Discarded draft here.
- We cowrote ~all of the new Alignment of Complex Systems group’s posts.
- Misha, Eli, and Aaron cofounded Sage, a forecasting service / code shop. Their first public product is the epistemic training site Quantified Intuitions.
- Alejandro helped with the AI immigration piece
- Johnny wrote the Big3 library and wrote a widget for our education piece.
- Alexander helped with lots of things, centrally our AI ethics project.
- Niplav wrote us a library to easily collate forecasts from different platforms.
- We rewrote the AI alignment wikipedia page (alongside many contributors).
Meta
- We worked 5506 hours with around 2.5 FTE.
- 100% growth (from 2 people to 4.5)
- We spent 6 months colocated and 6 months fully remote.
- Mexico is amazing.