Our consulting work spans forecasting, machine learning, and policy.

We do original research, evidence reviews, and large-scale data pipelines.

Current work

Reviewing cutting-edge AI research for a major foundation
A response team for future catastrophes like Covid
The relationship between successful ML classification and generation

Past work

Reviewing the evidence for generalist forecasters
Investigating AI talent for Emergent Ventures
Location scouting for clinical trial centres
Reviewing the economics of elite education
On intellectual history: what makes movements take off?
A quantitative look at creativity in teams
Evaluating the forecasting work of Isaac Asimov

Our clients include Open Philanthropy, Schmidt Futures, the Mercatus Center,
the Centre for Effective Altruism, and the Institute for Progress.


Mar 2023: Forecasting for policy
Jan 2023: Talent science
Dec 2022: 2022 Review

We are hiring!

Founded by Misha Yagudin & Gavin Leech