Our consulting work spans forecasting, machine learning, and policy.

We do original research, evidence gathering, and largeish data pipelines.

Current work

This year, we're building AI tools and investigating unscientific practices in AI evals.

Past work

	A major trade book on current AI
	Experiment design and technical writing for new ML methods
	Diagnosing unscientific practices in AI evals
	Annotating key scientific breakthroughs of our time
	Location scouting for clinical trials
	Mapping all AI safety research
	Synthesis and strategy in ten fields at once
	Reviewing recent progress in generative biology
	Reviewing the evidence for generalist forecasters, and implementation issues
	Reviewing the economics of elite education
	Evaluating the forecasting work of Isaac Asimov

Our clients include Stripe, SCSP, Coefficient Giving, Schmidt Futures,
Renaissance Philanthropy, the Mercatus Center, FAR AI, and the Institute for Progress.

News

Feb 2026:	Semantic duplicates confound apparent AI progress
Dec 2025:	2025 review
Dec 2025:	Breakthroughs of the year