Our consulting work spans forecasting, machine learning, and epidemiology.

We do original research, evidence reviews, and large-scale data pipelines.

Current work

Reviewing cutting-edge AI research for a major foundation
A response team for future catastrophes like Covid
On intellectual history: what makes movements take off?

Past work

Reviewing the evidence for generalist forecasters
Investigating AI talent for Emergent Ventures
Location scouting for clinical trial centres
Reviewing the economics of elite education
Judging criticism of effective altruism
Evaluating the forecasting work of Isaac Asimov

Our clients include Open Philanthropy, Schmidt Futures, the Mercatus Center,
and the Centre for Effective Altruism.


Dec 2022: 2022 Review
Sep 2022: Misc
Aug 2022: Extreme AI probabilities

We are hiring!

Founded by Misha Yagudin & Gavin Leech