Our consulting work spans forecasting, machine learning, and policy.

We do original research, evidence gathering, and largeish data pipelines.

Current work

This year, we're building AI tools for truth-seeking, strategy, and prosthesis.

Past work

	A major trade book on current AI
	Experiment design and technical writing for new ML methods
	Location scouting for clinical trials
	Synthesis and strategy in ten fields at once
	Reviewing recent progress in generative biology
	Reviewing the evidence for generalist forecasters, and implementation issues
	Redoing AI forecasting from first principles
	Investigating AI talent for Emergent Ventures
	Reviewing the economics of elite education
	Evaluating the forecasting work of Isaac Asimov

Our clients include Stripe, Open Philanthropy, Schmidt Futures, the Mercatus Center,
FAR AI, and the Institute for Progress.

News

Jul 2025:	AI bias against humans
Apr 2025:	Talleyrand: AI for scenario analysis
Mar 2025:	Stripe Press book out