Arb Research

Our consulting work spans forecasting, machine learning, and policy.

We do original research, evidence gathering, and large-scale data pipelines.

Current work

	A tamper-resistant AI benchmark
	AI incident reporting
	Evaluating the effect of training programmes
	Adapting theories of discrimination to AI
	Running a retreat

	Summarising and strategising in ten fields at once
	Experiment design and technical writing for new ML methods
	Location scouting for clinical trials
	Reviewing the evidence for generalist forecasters, and implementation issues
	Redoing AI forecasting from first principles
	Investigating AI talent for Emergent Ventures
	Reviewing recent progress in generative biology
	Evaluating the track record of a large grantmaker and of outreach
	Reviewing the economics of elite education
	On intellectual history: what makes movements take off?
	Evaluating the forecasting work of Isaac Asimov

Our clients include Open Philanthropy, Schmidt Futures, the Mercatus Center, FAR AI
and the Institute for Progress.